Big 12 Hoops: 2026 Season Predictions

Alright guys, gather 'round! We're diving headfirst into the crystal ball for the 2026 Big 12 basketball season, and let me tell you, it's looking juicy. Predicting college basketball is always a wild ride, especially in a conference as stacked and unpredictable as the Big 12. Teams reload, stars emerge, and sometimes a dark horse comes out of nowhere to shake things up. But that's why we love it, right? We're going to break down who we think will be at the top, who might surprise us, and what storylines to keep an eye on. So, grab your favorite team's jersey, settle in, and let's talk some hoops!

The Usual Suspects: Contenders for the Crown

When we talk about the Big 12, a few names always come to mind when discussing who's likely to be in the championship hunt, and for the 2026 season, that trend is expected to continue, albeit with some fresh faces and evolving rosters. Kansas is, as always, a perennial powerhouse. Coach Bill Self has a knack for reloading and getting his teams to peak at the right time. Expect the Jayhawks to once again be a force to be reckoned with, likely boasting a blend of seasoned veterans and exciting newcomers ready to make their mark. Their defensive intensity and offensive execution have been hallmarks of their success, and there's no reason to believe that will change in 2026. Look for them to be a top-tier team, fighting for the regular-season title and a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. Their ability to recruit and develop talent is unmatched, and they consistently bring in players who can contribute immediately. The atmosphere at Allen Fieldhouse is legendary, and it will undoubtedly continue to be a fortress for opposing teams. We're talking about a program with a championship pedigree, and they always seem to find a way to be in the mix. Baylor is another team that has established itself as a consistent contender under Scott Drew. They've shown they can build elite programs, blending physical defense with efficient offense. In 2026, they'll likely have a strong core, possibly featuring some talented upperclassmen who have developed within their system. Their ability to force turnovers and capitalize on transition opportunities makes them a dangerous opponent for anyone. They've proven they can win big games and navigate the tough Big 12 schedule. Their recruiting classes have consistently been strong, bringing in players who fit their defensive identity and add offensive firepower. The Bears have demonstrated their resilience and adaptability, making them a team that will be hard to count out. We're expecting Baylor to be right there battling for conference supremacy, bringing their trademark toughness and strategic play to the forefront. The trajectory of their program under Drew has been nothing short of remarkable, and 2026 should see them continue that trend.

Beyond these titans, Texas Tech has shown significant growth and has the potential to be a major player. With a commitment to strong defense and a physical style of play, the Red Raiders under Mark Adams have become a tough out for any opponent. In 2026, they could very well be challenging for a top spot, especially if they can maintain their defensive intensity and find consistent scoring threats. They play with a chip on their shoulder and have a passionate fanbase that fuels their home-court advantage. Their ability to recruit players who thrive in a high-pressure defensive environment is a key factor in their success. Expect them to be a team that grinds out wins and is a difficult matchup in the Big 12. Their resilience and competitive spirit are undeniable, making them a team that opponents will circle on their calendars. The Red Raiders have been building something special, and 2026 could be the year they truly solidify their place among the elite. We can't forget about Oklahoma, a program that always has the potential to make noise. While they might not always have the consistent top-tier ranking of Kansas or Baylor, they possess the coaching and talent to surprise everyone. In 2026, if they can find the right mix of experienced players and emerging talent, they could easily be a dark horse contender or a team that plays spoiler to the favorites. Their development of talent and ability to execute game plans will be crucial. The Sooners have a history of producing exciting basketball, and with the right pieces in place, they can certainly compete for a high finish in the conference. We're keeping an eye on Oklahoma to see if they can put all the pieces together for a dominant season. They have the coaching staff capable of developing players and a solid foundation to build upon. The passion of their fanbase and the history of their program add to their potential. They have the ability to upset top teams and could be a surprise contender if everything aligns. The expectation is that they will be a competitive team that plays hard every night out, making them a tough opponent for anyone in the Big 12.

Rising Stars and Potential Surprises

While the established powers are always worth watching, the beauty of college basketball lies in its unpredictability. For the 2026 season, keep an eye on teams like Texas and TCU. The Longhorns, under new leadership or with continued development from their current roster, have the talent to be a force. They often bring in highly-touted recruits, and if those players coalesce into a cohesive unit, they could be battling for a top-four spot. Their athleticism and potential are undeniable, and it's a matter of consistent execution and coaching. TCU, under Jamie Dixon, has consistently punched above its weight. They play a gritty, disciplined brand of basketball and have shown they can compete with anyone. In 2026, with continued recruiting success and player development, the Horned Frogs could be poised for another strong showing, potentially even challenging for a top-three finish. They play hard, defend well, and have a knack for closing out games. Their ability to recruit versatile players who can contribute on both ends of the court is a key factor. We're talking about a team that doesn't back down from anyone and consistently overachieves. Their development of players within the program is exceptional, leading to a team that is well-drilled and plays with great chemistry. We're expecting TCU to be a team that surprises many and finishes higher than some anticipate. They have the coaching and the grit to make a serious run. What about programs like Oklahoma State or Iowa State? These teams often have moments of brilliance and can string together impressive wins. If they can find consistency and maintain momentum throughout the grueling Big 12 schedule, they could be dark horses to make a significant leap. Oklahoma State, with its passionate fanbase and historical significance, always has the potential to be a contender. Iowa State, under T.J. Otzelberger, has shown a commitment to building a strong defensive identity and playing with intensity. In 2026, if they can add the right offensive pieces and continue to develop their young talent, they could be a surprise package. We're talking about programs that have the capability to upset top teams and make deep runs in the postseason. Their resilience and determination to improve year over year are key indicators of their potential. These teams are often the ones that make the conference race so exciting, as they can derail the plans of the favorites. We're looking for these programs to showcase their growth and make a statement in the 2026 season. They have the coaches and the resources to build competitive teams, and it's only a matter of time before they put it all together. We're expecting some unexpected results from these squads.

Don't count out the newer members of the Big 12, either! As the conference landscape shifts, teams like BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston will continue to find their footing and establish their presence. While they might be playing catch-up in terms of conference prestige, they possess talented rosters and capable coaching staffs. BYU, with its strong program history and passionate fanbase, has the potential to be a tough out, especially at home. Houston, with its defensive prowess under Kelvin Sampson, is always a threat. Cincinnati and UCF bring their own unique strengths and will look to make their mark. As these teams gel within the Big 12, they could certainly play spoiler roles and even challenge for higher seeds than initially predicted. Their integration into the conference is a storyline to watch, and their performance in 2026 could be a strong indicator of their future success. We're seeing a real push from these programs to establish themselves as legitimate Big 12 contenders. They've already proven they can compete at a high level, and now it's about translating that into consistent conference success. Their ability to recruit and develop talent within the competitive Big 12 environment will be key. We expect them to be more settled and confident in 2026, potentially leading to more upsets and a more unpredictable conference race. They have the coaching and the talent to surprise teams, and we'll be watching closely to see how they perform as they continue to integrate into this challenging league.

Key Storylines to Watch

As we look ahead to the 2026 Big 12 season, there are several compelling storylines that will shape the narrative. First and foremost, the coaching carousel will likely spin, with new coaches taking the helm at a few programs. How quickly these new leaders can implement their systems and connect with their players will be a major factor in their team's success. We've seen successful coaching transitions in the past, where new voices inject energy and lead to immediate improvements, and we'll be looking for similar impacts in 2026. The ability of a new coach to recruit effectively and build relationships with players and the fanbase is crucial for long-term success. We're eager to see which programs manage to find the right fit and how that translates to on-court performance. It's always exciting to see how a fresh perspective can revitalize a team. The development of star players is another critical element. Who will emerge as the next big names in the Big 12? Will returning stars elevate their game to another level, or will new talent burst onto the scene? The emergence of breakout players can completely change the complexion of a conference race and create compelling individual matchups. We'll be watching to see which players make the biggest leaps and become household names. The growth of young talent is what college basketball is all about, and the Big 12 always seems to produce its fair share of future NBA stars. Keep an eye on those sophomore and junior seasons, as that's often when players truly come into their own. The impact of NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) will continue to be a significant factor. How different programs navigate the NIL landscape and leverage it for recruiting and retention will be fascinating to observe. It's a new era for college athletics, and the teams that adapt best will likely see the most success. This evolving landscape is definitely something to keep an eye on as it influences recruiting battles and player decisions. We are living in unprecedented times in college sports, and the way programs manage NIL deals will undoubtedly impact their ability to attract and keep top talent. It's a complex issue with far-reaching implications for the future of the game. The parity within the conference is always a storyline. The Big 12 is known for its competitive balance, and we can expect another year where upsets are frequent and the standings are tight. Predicting the champion might be a fool's errand, as so many teams are capable of beating each other on any given night. This inherent competitiveness is what makes the Big 12 so thrilling to watch. The grind of the conference schedule is brutal, and every game matters. We're expecting a logjam at the top and a fight for every win. The ability of teams to win on the road, which is notoriously difficult in the Big 12, will be a key differentiator. Finally, the NCAA Tournament picture will be heavily influenced by Big 12 performance. How many teams earn bids, and how highly seeded will they be? The conference's strength will be on full display during March Madness, and strong regular-season showings will be crucial for securing favorable matchups. A deep run by a Big 12 team can solidify the conference's reputation and boost the resumes of its contenders. We're always looking to see how the Big 12 stacks up against the rest of the nation, and March Madness is the ultimate proving ground. The conference's success in the tournament often reflects the talent and coaching present within the league.

Final Thoughts

Predicting the 2026 Big 12 basketball season is a challenging, yet incredibly rewarding, endeavor. We've seen that perennial powers like Kansas and Baylor will likely be in the mix, bringing their championship DNA to the forefront. However, the rise of programs like Texas Tech and the potential of teams like Texas and TCU mean the conference race will be anything but a cakewalk. The integration of new members adds another layer of intrigue, promising a more diverse and competitive landscape. Coaching changes, player development, and the ever-present influence of NIL will all play significant roles in shaping the season. Ultimately, the Big 12 in 2026 promises to be a thrilling display of talent, grit, and unpredictable outcomes. Get ready for another incredible season of college basketball, guys. It's going to be a wild one!

Disclaimer: These are predictions based on current trends and potential roster compositions. The beauty of college basketball is its inherent unpredictability, and surprises are always in store. Enjoy the journey!